# Meteor Shower Visibility Forecast by Location

Use the Light Pollution Map meteor shower forecast to estimate how many meteors per hour may be visible from a specific location. The forecast accounts for annual shower activity, radiant altitude, twilight, moonlight, local light pollution, coordinates, and time zone.

Forecast tool: https://lightpollutionmap.app/meteor-shower-visibility/

## What the forecast provides

- The best local observing time within the forecast window.
- Expected visible meteors per hour for the selected coordinates.
- A reference rate under ideal dark-sky conditions.
- Hourly radiant altitude, moonlight interference, and observing windows.
- Local light-pollution and time-zone context used in the calculation.

## How the visibility forecast works

The forecast converts meteor shower activity into a location-specific observing estimate. It combines annual activity profiles and peak structure with local observing geometry, darkness, moonlight, and light pollution. The forecast system is calibrated against real StargazingHub observing records and is also used in the StargazingHub app.

The headline number is the highest expected visible rate during the forecast window at the selected coordinates. The ideal-dark-sky value is a comparison reference, not the expected result for the current location.

## Data provenance

The meteor forecast model and the light-pollution layer have separate, explicit provenance:

- Meteor visibility is calculated from annual shower activity profiles, peak structure, local observing geometry, darkness, moonlight, and light pollution. The model is calibrated against real StargazingHub observing records.
- When a map-matched SQM value is available, the light-pollution input follows the published [About & Data](https://lightpollutionmap.app/about-data/) policy. The latest completed annual layer is independently calculated by LightPollutionMap.app from NOAA VIIRS annual night-light data using its own sky-brightness method. If no map value is available, the result identifies the fallback estimate.
- Values labelled 2026 are provisional estimates, revised as additional monthly inputs become available. They are not a completed annual satellite layer.
- Displayed SQM is modeled rather than an on-site measurement. The site does not use DJ Lorenz data or algorithms; only his color palette is a visual reference.
- Public documentation describes inputs, interpretation, calibration, and limits without publishing private coefficients or service implementation details.

## Mobile tools for observing

Use StargazingHub to plan around moonlight, clouds, darkness, and the best local observing time. Use Compass Altimeter outdoors to check live bearing, altitude, and the direction of the Sun and Moon.

- StargazingHub for iPhone: https://apps.apple.com/app/id1478601599
- StargazingHub for Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.twtapp
- Compass Altimeter for iPhone: https://apps.apple.com/app/id6752685064
- Compass Altimeter for Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.knockdream.compass

## Forecast scope

Use the result to plan an observing session. Actual counts can vary with real-time cloud, atmospheric transparency, horizon obstructions, dark adaptation, and observing experience.

## Common questions

### How many meteors can I see tonight?

Enter coordinates and calculate the currently selected major shower. The result shows the best local hour and expected visible meteors per hour for that sky.

### What affects meteor shower visibility?

The main factors are shower activity, radiant altitude, darkness, moonlight, light pollution, cloud, atmospheric transparency, and an unobstructed horizon.

### Why can the best local time differ from the shower peak?

The global shower maximum can occur during daylight or when the radiant is low at a location. The best local time balances activity with darkness, Moon position, and radiant height.